The Crash Of '99?

1999年会出现经济衰退吗？（ 1 ）

THE CRISIS STAGE: The U.S. economy suddenly looks weaker than almost anyone expected. The conventional wisdom still says America won't be pulled down by global economic woes. Don't bet on it.
危机时期：美国的经济，骤然看起来，比人们预计的要糟糕。很多看法仍然坚持美国不会被时下的全球经济灾难拖累。决不要在这个问题上打赌。

By Robert J. Samuelson
罗伯特·塞缪尔森

[1] There are two ways to interpret『解释；说明；阐明』 the slide of the stock market that, despite intermittent rallies『跌停回升；降后复涨』, is down almost 17 percent from its mid-July peak『最高点；高峰』. The first is that investors simply got rattled『惊慌失措』 by a series of events that they barely understood, from the collapse of the Russian ruble in mid-August to the near bankruptcy『破产』of the Long- Term Capital Markets hedge fund『投资基金；投资集团』 at the end of September. The second is that the market is signaling『做表示；发信号』 a genuine economic turning point: that the United States, after more than seven years of healthy expansion, is stumbling into『陷入』 sharp slowdown or even a recession『衰退；衰退期』.

[1]尽管股市断断续续出现反弹，但仍从今年7月中旬的最高点下跌了大约17％。对于当前股市的狂泻有两种解释：第一种解释是，投资者对所发生的一系列事件困惑不解。这些事件有8月中旬俄罗斯卢布的贬值、9月底长期资本管理公司濒临崩溃等；第二种解释是，市场正在发出经济将发生真正转折的信号：美国经济在经历了7年健康的增长之后将急剧减速，甚至进入衰退。

【额外成就感】：
The young man interpreted her answer as a refusal.
(这个年轻人把她的回答解释为拒绝。)
Good speaker should interpret his point clearly.
（优秀的讲演者应该清晰地阐明自己的观点。）
Both sides have signaled their willingness to start negotiations.
（双方都表示愿意开始谈判。）
The policeman signaled the traffic to move forward slowly.
（警察示意车辆慢速行驶。）

[2] Sorry, folks: it looks like a recession.

[2] 对不起，同胞们，经济眼下看起来就像是衰退。

[3] Let's state all the usual caveats『警告；告戒』. We can't know for certain. Economic prognostication『预兆；预示』 is a routinely humbling『谦卑的；恭顺的』 exercise. And for now, the U.S. economy seems strong. In September, unemployment was 4.6 percent (up only slightly from 4.5 percent in August), and President Clinton boasted that the jobless rate『失业率』 has been below 5 percent for 15 months, the best performance in 28 years. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau『人口普查局』reported that median household income rose almost 2 percent in 1997 to $37,005 and that the number of people below the government's poverty line『贫困线』fell by almost 1 million. But beyond these sparkling『激励的；鼓舞的』reports, the economy is edging toward a slump『衰落；衰退』.

[3] 让我们来说说所有通常的警告吧。我们无法确切地知道是否要衰退，因为经济方面的预兆通常是由良好的发展势头开始的。是美国经济眼下看来还是很强劲的。9月份，美国的失业率为4.6％（略高于8月份的4.5％）。克林顿总统吹嘘说，失业率15个月以来一直在5％以下，是28年来最好的。与此同时，人口普查局在一份报告中说，1997年中产阶级家庭的收入增长了近2％，达到了人均37005美元；在政府规定的贫困线以下生活的人口已下降了近100万人。但是，除了这些积极的报道之外，经济正在逐步走向衰退。

[4] The best way to grasp this is to see the economic events of the past 15 months as a set of dominoes『多米诺骨牌』that, as they tumbled『跌倒；坍塌』, have imperiled『危及；使……陷于』 U.S. production and profits-and frayed『磨损』Americans' confidence. It was sky-high confidence, based on stratospheric『最高的』stock prices and strong job growth, that kept consumers spending furiously『热烈地；兴奋地』in early 1998. The personal savings rate sank to less than 1 percent, as Americans spent almost all their current income. But with the global crisis eroding『削弱；破坏』corporate profits, stock prices dropped. If consumer spending-two thirds of gross domestic product-follows stocks down, a slump may be inevitable『不可避免的；必然发生的』. A bad omen『征兆；兆头』: consumer confidence, though still high, has begun slipping lately (chart).

[4] 不祥的征兆 了解这一点最好的办法就是看一看在过去的15个月中发生的一系列经济事件。其他一些国家的经济出现的连锁危机波及到了美国的生产和利润，进而影响了美国民众的信心。美国人一度很强的信心是建立在稳定的股市和强劲的就业增长的基础之上的。正是这强劲的信心使得消费者在1998年初狂热地消费。由于美国人把他们获得的收入都消费掉了，储蓄率因此降到不足1％。可是，随着全球性的经济危机吞噬了公司的利润，股市开始下挫。如果消费支出随着股市的下跌而下降，衰退就将是不可避免的。一个不祥的征兆是，消费者的信心虽然还很强，但已经开始慢慢下降了。

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