The Crash Of '99?

1999年会出现经济衰退吗？（ 2 ）

[5] Consider how the dominoes have toppled『倒塌；倒下』:

[5] 让我们来想一想这手牌是如何倒下的：

[6] The first was Thailand. It devalued the baht『铢，泰国货币单位』on July 2,1997. Few Americans noticed. After all, Thailand absorbed only 1 percent of U.S. exports. But other Asian countries (South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines) soon followed suit. Foreign investment capital that had poured in to these countries-as bank loans, direct investment and stock purchases-began to flee『逃走；逃掉』, because the money was badly spent. Blame fell on "crony『老朋友；密友』 capitalism" (funneling『集中的』 investment funds to favored friends or industries). Still, American economists minimized『使尽量缩小』 the impact『影响；冲击』; together, these countries buy only 8 percent of U.S. exports.

[6]首先是泰国，在1997年7月2日泰铢进行了贬值。很少有美国人注意到这一点，毕竟泰国仅占美国出口的1%。但是，其他的亚洲国家相继跨入了这一行列（有韩国，印尼，马来西亚，菲律宾）。早先涌入的国外投资资本，主要是银行贷款，直接投资，购买股票。由于资金消耗太大，这时候纷纷撤出。责任当然在这些资本主义的国家身上（他们集中对热门工业进行投资）。此时，美国经济学家仍在尽量减小受到的冲击：这些国家加在一起，也仅占了美国出口的8%。

[7] Then Japan was hurt, because roughly 40 percent of its trade is with the rest of Asia. The loss of exports pushed its already-weak economy-which had never fully recovered from the speculative『投机的；带有投机性的』"bubble economy『泡沫经济』" of the late 1980s-into its worst postwar recession. The problems of its banks, burdened『承担；负担』 with more than $500 billion in bad loans, deepened. All the Asian recessions fed on each other; Japan wasn't healthy enough to help other Asian nations revive『复苏；复兴』by buying more of their exports.

[7] 由于日本大约有40%的贸易是与亚洲国家进行的，这使其国内经济受到了损害。自从80年代后期以来，日本的投机性泡沫经济一直就没有彻底愈合，此时出口的下降，把本已脆弱的经济推入了战后最严重的衰退之中。日本的银行问题重重，负担的坏帐总额超过5000亿美圆。所有亚洲国家的经济衰退交互影响，日本无力以增加本国的进口来帮助亚洲国家复兴经济。 【背景知识】
在亚洲经济危机发生之后，仅日本就给出了190亿美圆，而欧美诸国加在一起也不到150亿美圆。在亚洲日本与欧美相比，其影响的大小清晰可见。 日本是中国以及很多亚洲国家的主要出口市场，只有日本的经济出现复苏亚洲各国才会拥有真正摆脱经济阴影的基础。

[8] Capital flight next hit Latin America and Russia in early summer. To stop investors from converting local currencies into dollars (or yen or German marks), countries raised interest rates. In July, short-term interest rates in Russia shot to 100 percent. But high rates meant slower economic growth or a crash; a currency collapse-if capital flight continued-posed『造成；引起』the same dangers. Now the "Asian crisis" extended well beyond a few small countries. Including Japan, Latin America and the former soviet bloc, almost half the world economy was affected.

[8]在今年夏天早些时候，资金外流接下来就冲击了拉美国家和俄罗斯。为了制止投资商把本国货币兑换成美圆（或日圆及德国马克），这些国家提高了利率。在七月份，俄罗斯的短期利率达到了100%。但是高利率意味着经济低增长甚至崩溃：如果资本抽逃持续下去的话，货币体系的暴跌会导致同样的危险。现在"亚洲危机"已不再局限于几个经济小国了。包括日本，拉美，俄罗斯在内的世界经济的一半都受到了影响。

【背景知识】
在8月26日俄罗斯金融危机中，股市，汇市，债市，下跌不止，美圆供不应求。以致中央银行宣布停止交易，随后又宣布，当日的所有交易全部无效。这种令人震惊的举动在俄罗斯金融市场尚属首次。其后又宣布银行将休假两星期。所有银行门前都挂着没有外汇的牌子。在债市上部分半年和一年期的国债券收益率上升到300%。当局根据有关规定被迫关闭了交易市场。随后政府又宣布推迟偿还卢布面值的短期国债券，使其变为3-5年的长期债券。

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