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    With memories still fresh, the results 1)in the long run are 2)reassuring.

     August 1990, Iraqi troops invade Kuwait 3)sparking the Persian Gulf War. Painful as in all wars, but history shows wounds often heal quickly as victory comes into view. 

     “War tends to be good for economies in the long run, especially if the war is fought on somebody else’s territory of course.”

     Within a month after the Gulf War began, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down nearly nine percent. But once the US military convinced people America could win this war, gains started to mount. By August 1991, the Dow was up nearly five percent. A decade later ---August 2001, the industrials had climbed a 4)stunning 273 percent!

     The market’s reaction following the attack on Pearl Harbor went through a similar 5)scenario. The week after Japan dropped the bombs, the Dow fell four and a half percent. The market was still sliding a year later, but rose almost 47 percent five years later and 127 percent by Pearl Harbor’s tenth 6)anniversary.

     But in this new war against terrorism, a clear victory may be much harder to 7)come by. We simply don’t know how it’s going to 8)play out.

     “Markets 9)loathe uncertainty almost more than anything else. I mean they can get used to bad news, but it’s when they don’t know what’s going to happen next that markets are very 10)unsettled and they tend to fall.”

Take Vietnam. Victory was 11)elusive. The war dragged on for nearly 11 years. After the Gulf of Tonkin 12)Resolution, which allowed the United States to enter the war in full force, the Dow was 13)initially up the first month and 14)surged 10 percent over the next three years. But a decade later, the Dow had fallen nearly 10 percent. Yet in a country divided long before that war, some say stocks were 15)bound to fail. There were many other factors affecting stocks at that time. The 16)assassinations of Martin Luther King and Robert Kennedy. It was also different because that was a war we did not win.       CE

 

 

12、战争对股市的影响

 

凭着犹新的记忆,未来的结果会令人宽心的多。

1990年8月,伊拉克军队入侵科威特,触发了海湾战争。尽管一如所有的战争般令人伤痛,但历史表明如果胜利在望,伤口通常痊愈得快。

“战争对经济长远发展有好处,尤其是当战争爆发在别的国家时。”

海湾战争的头一个月,道琼斯工业指数平均下降近9%。然而当美军令人们相信美国可以打赢这场仗后,指数开始攀升。到1991年8月,道指上升将近5%。十年后的2001年8月,道指升幅竟然高达273%

偷袭珍珠港后的市场反应与此甚为相似。日本投下炸弹后一周,道指跌了4.5%。一年后市场依然下滑,可是五年后升幅近47%,到珍珠港事件十周年时升幅达127%。

至于这场对付恐怖分子的新战争,可能就较难取得真正的胜利了。我们还不知道这场仗会打成怎样。

“市场讨厌的就是不明朗的气氛。我的意思是说,坏消息倒是听惯了,但要是人们不知道前景怎样时,市场不明朗股价就下跌。”

以越战为例。胜负难以界定。这场战争打了将近11年。北部湾决议后,美军得以全面进攻,首月道指便开始上升,并在随后三年中上升了10%。但10年后,道指跌了近一成。然而国家在越战前便已大伤元气,有人说股市势必疲软。当时影响股市的还有其他许多因素,如:马丁·路德·金和罗伯特·肯尼迪遇刺。股市与平常有异还在于美国并没有打赢那场战。CE

 

1) in the long run 长期

2) reassuring [ ri:E5FuEriN]a. 安心的,可靠的

3) spark [spa:k] v. 发动

4) stunning [5stQniN] a. 足以让人晕倒的,极好的

5) scenario [si5na:riEu] n. 游戏的关,某一特定情节

6) anniversary [Ani5vE:sEri] n. 周年纪念

7) come by 到来

8) play out 演完,打完,进行战争

9) loathe [lEuT] v. 厌恶,憎恶

10) unsettled [Qn5setld] a. 未处理的,未决定的

11) elusive [i5lu:siv]a. 难捉摸的

12) resolution [rezE5lu:FEn] n. 决议

13) initially [i5niFEli] adv. 开始,最初

14) surge[sE:dV]v. 奔腾,急放

15) bound to 必定会

16) assassination [E7sAsi5neiFEn] n. 暗杀

 



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